WTF is happening with Labour
Martin Ferris has is as “[Gilmore] has destroyed every party he was ever in, and he’ll destroy this one too”
The man who recruited Gilmore into the CPI believes that he is “a weak man, a coward” so I’d expect him to be tremendously risk adverse, he’ll take the path that requires him to take no action.
Obviously the younger generation are going to get raped in the next election, but even if the party splits (which is what Keaveney’s move looks to be aiming at) they only need nine td’s to maintain a majority
I’d say that they could hold onto
Gilmore 57
Quinn 66
Howlin 56
Rabbitte 63
Jan O’Sullivan 61
Joe Costello 67
Eric Byrne 65
Emmet Stagg 68
Sean Kenny 70
Jack Wall 67
Alex White 54
without difficulty
Then there is also the Juniors Sherlock and Lynch, who might just stick around if the Govt ain’t going to fall
Eamon Maloney is a hand picked coward he’ll stick with Rabbitte, this job is a reward for years of good service
Kevin Humphreys could go either way, but seems a long term party loyalist
Lyons could go either way, but he shares a constituency with Shorthall so he doesn’t have much to gain from jumping into a lefty-Labour life raft
Spring, Tuffy,Conway, MacNamara, Dowds, McCarthy, Burton, Phelan, Ó Riordáin, Nolan, Conaghan could easily regroup with
Penrose, Shortall, Broughan, Nulty, and Keavaney
A couple would have to shift constituencies, if a deal could be done there, you could see Lyons jump ship, and maybe Humphreys too
They might also go for a wresting of the party from Gilmore strategy, but that could be messier than a defection
you have the old bull and the young bull battling for supremacy, but I suspect that the internal Labour party rules will be fierce convoluted, and will delay a usurpation for some great period of time.
More immediately the problem will be the seanad.
Gilmore can count on Higgins and Hayden,
Whelan, Landy, Kelly and Heffernan are looking very shaky
but if the bad piss from the Girls vs Boys spat continues to have an effect that could shift Bacik and O’Keefe away from the rebels
so there could be a hilarious situation where those girls vote for what is perceived to be anti-female measure
Marie Moloney and Mary Moran have been fierce friendly with Shorthall of late.
in any respect, you’ll have the quislings in the Endapendents voting with the Govt (tough call for JvT on which way she swings there)
2nd stage is on Tuesday, committee on Wednesday there are plenty of murmerrings that the govt no longer has control of the seanad
fun and games
